The Sun will NOT rise tomorrow…

 

We all experience alcohol differently. Some people become angry, others happy as they come out of their shell and let loose.

 

Maybe it’s just my age, but I have discovered recently that I become philosophical after a few drinks.

The other day I was sharing a terrific Japanese whiskey with a good mate and upon pouring our 4th shot, I asked him…..’what can you say with absolute certainty is TRUE that cannot be argued?’

 

His face went blank for what was probably only 20 seconds but felt way longer, then lighting up with excitement he announced…..’the Sun will rise in the morning’.

 

Fast forward 45mins of heated discussion and many more shots of whiskey, and here is where we got to, less the slurring.

 

If we left my lounge room and jumped in a rocket ship and travelled 300,000 kms into space, parking ourselves facing the Sun….what would we see?

 

We would see the Sun right? Not rising, not setting just doing what the Sun does, shining. However, our perspective from Earth is that it rises and it sets.

 

The point is your perception of something may seem right to you, but you could be seriously wrong.

 

The big fear globally right now is recession. With the inflation number in Australia just hitting 6.1%, the highest level in more than 20 years, the media everywhere is focused on how high interest rates will need to be pushed up in order to drive the economy backwards into recession.

 

It’s important to understand that prices of everything have risen a lot, but not because of an over heating economy, where the demand for goods & services overtakes businesses ability to supply them.

The rise this time is purely due to disruptions caused by the pandemic. This, plus the Russia/Ukraine situation have caused one-off price rises  which will eventually return to normal.

 

So while it’s true interest rates could not stay at near zero forever, be careful about what you believe they will do moving in the other direction. We might see the peak of this raising cycle quicker than the media would like you to believe.

 

And then those that rushed in the last few weeks to lock in very high 5 year fixed rates on their mortgage might realise that not everything we believe is true.

 

Kiril Ruvinsky